U.S. Concrete Inc.
- Previous Failure: U.S. Concrete filed for bankruptcy after the financial crisis: The industry is difficult given the commodity nature of the products, intense competition, and need to be close to the customer because shipping costs are material
- Becoming More Dependent on Shady Acquisitions: USCR has acquired over 20 companies since 2012. It recently outbid industrial giant Vulcan Materials for Canadian small cap Polaris Materials and also purchased firms with alleged historical ties to organized crime
- GAAP vs. Non-GAAP Strains: In 2017 there were a record number of adjustments to results, and yet Adjusted EPS grew by just 4%
- USCR Claims Mid To High Single Digit Organic Growth: Evidence suggests organic growth is overstated, and mostly a function of pass through commodity price increases. We note realized prices by USCR hit a 5yr low in 2017, and have continued lower in Q1’18
- USCR Makes Organic Growth Difficult To Calculate: USCR selectively discloses figures in periods when good, not bad. The Company has generally done a poor job of breaking out acquisition contributions in SEC filings
- CEO Concerns and Rapid CFO Turnover: A routine background check of the CEO reveals an undisclosed DWI arrest for reckless driving, calling into question his judgement. USCR is on its fourth CFO since 2012. Recent CFO John Tusa, Jr. resigned after serving a little more than one year
- Two Ways To Value USCR Point To 60% – 90% Downside Risk: Given our analysis that shows distortions in USCR’s Non-GAAP figures, we believe the best way to value the Company is on Free Cash Flow. We expect further deterioration which began three years ago, and apply a 20x – 25x multiple to reflect a discount to the peer average for its above average exposure to ready-mix, poor roll-up economics, and growing liquidity risk. Secondly, we adjust USCR’s book value for an estimated $60 – $85 million of overcapitalized costs to its vehicle property accounts and apply a 1.0x – 1.5x multiple range. These valuation perspectives indicate 60% to 90% downside or approximately $6.00 to $25.00 per share