Investment Research report

Penumbra, Inc.

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Research Overview

S&P 500
Jul 31, 2019

After conducting a forensic financial and accounting review, Spruce Point believes Penumbra, Inc. (NYSE: PEN), a one-trick-pony surgical instrument company which, in our opinion, produces a low-tech and undifferentiated product in an increasingly competitive space, could have its sales growth cut by nearly half in FY20 based on underestimated competition. Based on our investigation, we estimate 40% to 55% downside risk, or $85.00 - $110.00 per share.

The report highlights several key concerns with the company, including:

  • We believe that the major MedTech entrance to the market materially alters the landscape
  • We find evidence that the current market share loss is deeply misunderstood by investors
  • We believe that the Company’s “Bundled Pricing” may lead to significant margin pressure
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