Mercury Systems Inc.

Mercury Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: MRCY) provides sensor and safety critical mission processing subsystems for various defense and intelligence programs in the United States. Mercury appears to be caught in the perfect storm of slowing growth, rising costs and debt. There are multiple material adverse changes currently facing Mercury which suggest 50% to 85% downside risk ($7 to $23 per share).

  • Mercury’s Adj. EBITDA margins of 23.4% are extremely high for a government subcontractor, and have grown 450bps in the last three fiscal years, allowing Adj. EBITDA to balloon 112% while its free cash flow grew zero over the same period. Free cash flow is now trending down over the last 12 months. Days inventory and its cash collection cycle are near all-time highs; accounts receivables recently started to exceed sales
  • Historically, radar systems is Mercury’s largest business, but now appears to be declining, while “Other Revenues” is the fastest growing segment. Mercury changed its financial presentation to bolster gross margins, while guidance for gross margins has quietly been talked down. For the first time in Q2’18, Mercury missed its gross margin (and EPS) target
  • Mercury sells itself as growing revenues organically 9.5% (double its end markets), yet we find evidence these results are not sustainable and growth may slow to 6.5% in CY 2018. Mercury announced the purchase of Themis Computer on Dec 21, 2017 (four days ahead of Christmas). It paid a rich 13.7x EBITDA multiple, and borrowed $189m on its line of credit. In our opinion, the deal appears motivated to avoid missing Wall Street’s expectations. Consistent with prior practice, we expect Mercury to issue stock to pay down its line of credit, which at the current share price, amounts to 4m new shares
  • Mercury added one sentence to its latest 10-K to disclose it expects to lose its Small Business status in FY 2018, a factor that will cause a Material Adverse Effect by disqualifying it from certain business opportunities and increasing costs of compliance