Limbach Holdings, Inc.
An Overheated HVAC Growth Story
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Limbach Holdings, Inc.
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Research Overview

INDEX:
S&P 500
Sector:
Industrials
Position:
Short
Date:
Jul 22, 2025

After conducting a forensic financial review of Limbach Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: LMB) (“Limbach" or the "Company") a roll-up in the building services sector that designs, constructs, serves and maintains mechanical (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (“HVAC”), electrical, and plumbing infrastructure, Spruce Point has developed concerns over the Company’s aggressive accounting practices, several connections to actual high-profile and alleged fraud cases (e.g. an Enron spin-off, Qwest Communications, and Granite Construction) among its board, and its CFO who was previously sued over an alleged breach of fiduciary duty. We also observe decelerating organic growth in the Company’s Owner Direct Relationships (“ODR”) segment, the key growth driver for the Company, and highlight why we believe the Company’s measures of Adj. EBITDA and free cash flow are overstated by 13% and 200%, respectively, over the last twelve months, raising questions about the sustainability of its growth strategy. Based on our investigation, we estimate a 20% - 50% potential long-term downside and market underperformance risk.

The report highlights several key concerns with the Company, including:

• Limbach became public through a SPAC transaction in 2016.

• Multiple Board members have been associated with troubled companies that restated financial results.

• Limbach’s acquisition spree has failed to deter revenue loss while recent organic growth appears to be decelerating and backlog trends suggest weakening momentum.

• Financial disclosures are becoming more opaque and could be significantly improved.

• Key financial metrics are liberally defined and overstated based on our adjustments.

• Competitive pressures are intensifying from private equity and OEMs.

• Limbach enjoys unanimous “Buy” ratings from the sell-side, with an average price target of $141.50/share and a wide range between $120 and $163 per share, and valuation multiples of ~2.2x and ~18x our estimate for 2026 revenue and Adj. EBITDA, respectively. We estimate 20% - 50% ($62.00 - $99.00/share) potential downside risk.

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